1. Kodi Chikuchitika N’chiyani Pakali pano?
Ndi sabata yoyamba ya Januwale 2026. Dziko lonse lapansi logula zitsulo lasintha kwathunthu. Titha kutcha izi kuti "Chinsalu chachitsulo."
Kwa zaka makumi awiri zapitazi, tinkatha kugula zitsulo monga Tungsten kapena Cobalt kulikonse. Nthawi imeneyo yatha. Tsopano, tili ndi misika iwiri yosiyana. Msika umodzi uli ku China, ndipo wina uli Kumadzulo. Ali ndi mitengo yosiyana komanso malamulo osiyana.
Izi ndi zomwe kafukufuku akusonyeza kuti zikuchitika sabata ino:
●Tungsten:Mtengo ukukwera kwambiri. China ikulamulira pafupifupi 82% ya zomwe zaperekedwa. Akungochepetsa ndalama zomwe adzagulitsa ku dziko lonse lapansi. Nthawi yomweyo, United States inayamba kulipisha msonkho wa 25% pa tungsten yaku China pa Januware 1.
●Cobalt:Mkhalidwe ku Congo (DRC) ndi wosokoneza koma wovuta kwambiri. Anaika malire pa kuchuluka kwa katundu amene adzatumiza kunja. Anawonjezera nthawi yomaliza pang'ono kuti athandize magalimoto kudutsa malire, koma ndalama zonse zomwe zaloledwa mu 2026 zikadali zochepa kwambiri. Mitengo ikukwera chifukwa cha izi.
●Chitsulo Chothamanga Kwambiri (HSS):Ichi ndi chitsulo chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga zida zodulira. Chifukwa chakuti zosakaniza zake (Tungsten ndi Cobalt) ndi zodula, mitengo yachitsulo ikukwera. Koma mafakitale ku China akuchulukirachulukira, kotero akugula chitsulo chochulukirapo. Izi zimathandiza mitengo yokwera.
2. Tungsten: Nkhani ya Misika Iwiri
Ndayang'ana kwambiri msika wa Tungsten sabata ino. Mwina ndi chitsulo chofunikira kwambiri popanga zida zolimba.
Mbali ya Chitchaina
China yatulutsa mndandanda watsopano wa makampani omwe amaloledwa kutumiza Tungsten kunja pa Januware 2. Mndandandawu ndi waufupi. Makampani 15 okha ndi omwe angagulitse kunja.1
Ndayang'ana mitengo ku China. Tani imodzi ya "Black Tungsten Concentrate" tsopano imadula kuposa 356,000 RMB.2Izi ndi zapamwamba kwambiri. N’chifukwa chiyani zimakhala zodula chonchi? Ndapeza kuti oyang’anira zachilengedwe akuyendera migodi m’chigawo cha Jiangxi. Akukakamiza migodi kuti itsekedwe kuti ikonzedwe. Chifukwa chake, miyala yochepa ikutuluka m’nthaka.
Mbali Yakumadzulo
Ku Ulaya ndi ku America, ogula akuopa kwambiri. Mtengo wa APT (mtundu wa tungsten) ku Rotterdam wafika pa $850 mpaka $1,000.3Izi ndi zokwera kwambiri kuposa ku China.
Chifukwa chiyani pali kusiyana? Chifukwa cha misonkho yatsopano ya ku America. Pa Tsiku la Chaka Chatsopano, boma la America linayamba kukweza msonkho wa 25% pa tungsten yaku China.4Makampani aku America akuyesera kugula zinthu kuchokera kumayiko ena monga Vietnam kapena Brazil. Koma palibe zinthu zokwanira kumeneko. Choncho, ayenera kulipira ndalama zambiri.
3. Cobalt: Kusowa Kochita Kupanga
Cobalt ndi yofunika kwambiri popanga zida zogwirira ntchito bwino (monga chitsulo cha M35). Msika wa Cobalt ndi wovuta kwambiri pakadali pano.
Kusuntha Kwakukulu kwa Congo
Cobalt yambiri padziko lonse lapansi imachokera ku Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Boma kumeneko likufuna ndalama zambiri. Choncho, adakhazikitsa malire. Anati adzatumiza matani 96,600 okha mu 2026.5
Vuto ndi ili. Dziko lapansi likufunika zoposa pamenepo. Kuwerengera mwachidule kukuwonetsa kuti pakufunika matani osachepera 100,000.
Mpumulo "Wabodza"
Mungaone nkhani yoti dziko la Congo lawonjezera nthawi yawo yomaliza kufika mu Marichi 2026. Samalani ndi nkhaniyi. Anachita izi chifukwa magalimoto ambiri anali atatsekedwa pamalire.6Akungochotsa mkangano wa magalimoto. Malire a chaka chonse cha 2026 sanasinthe.
Chifukwa cha malire awa, mtengo wa Cobalt pa London Metal Exchange (LME) wakwera pamwamba pa $53,000 sabata ino.7
4. Chitsulo Chothamanga Kwambiri: Ndani Amalipira Bilu?
Kodi izi zikukhudza bwanji mafakitale omwe amapanga zida zobowolera ndi zodulira mphero?
Mtengo wa Alloys
Kuchokera pamndandanda wa mitengo ya opanga zitsulo akuluakulu aku Europe monga Erasteel, amalipiritsa ndalama yowonjezera yotchedwa "alloy surcharge." Pa Januwale 2026, ndalama iyi ndi pafupifupi ma Euro 1,919 pa tani.8Yatsika pang'ono kuchokera mu Disembala, koma ikadali yapamwamba kwambiri m'mbiri.
Ngati mugula chitsulo cha M35 (chomwe chili ndi Cobalt), mudzalipira ndalama zambiri kuposa chitsulo chokhazikika cha M2. Kusiyana pakati pa mitengo iwiriyi kukukulirakulira.
Kufunika Kukubweranso
Mitengo ndi yokwera, koma kodi anthu akugula? Inde.
Deta ya "PMI" ya Disembala ndi chigoli chomwe chimatiuza ngati mafakitale ali otanganidwa. Chigoli cha China chinali 50.1.10Kuchuluka kulikonse kopitilira 50 kumatanthauza kukula. Iyi ndi nthawi yoyamba m'miyezi ingapo yapitayi kukhala yabwino. Izi zikutanthauza kuti mafakitale akugwira ntchito, ndipo akufunika zida.
5. Kodi Tiyenera Kuchita Chiyani? (Uphungu Wanzeru)
Kutengera kafukufukuyu wonse, nayi malangizo ena a miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi.
1. Musayembekezere Kuti Mitengo Itsike.
Mitengo yokwera si kukwera kwakanthawi. Imayambitsidwa ndi malamulo aboma (quotas ndi tariffs). Malamulo awa sadzatha posachedwa. Ngati mukufuna zinthu za Q2, gulani tsopano.
2. Yang'anirani "Kufalikira".
Ngati mungagule zida zopangidwa m'maiko omwe sakhudzidwa ndi mitengo ya US, mungasunge ndalama. Koma samalani. Kupezeka kwa zipangizo m'maiko amenewo n'kochepa kwambiri.
3. Bwezeretsani Zonse.
Zitsulo zotsalira tsopano zili ngati golide. Zidutswa zakale zobowolera zili ndi tungsten ndi cobalt. Ngati mukuyang'anira fakitale, musazitaye. Muzigulitse kapena kuzisintha. Mtengo wa tungsten zotsalira wakwera ndi 160% chaka chatha.11
Kwa ogulitsa zida ochokera kunja, ogulitsa zida zambiri, ndi ogulitsa zida ochokera kumayiko ena:
Kusintha kwa msika kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2026 kumabweretsa mavuto enieni, osati mitengo yokwera yokha.
1. Kukhazikika kwa Mtengo Ndikofunikira Kuposa Mitengo Yokhazikika
Munthawi yomwe ilipo pano, kutsata kutsika kwa mitengo kwakanthawi kochepa kuli ndi chiopsezo chachikulu. Kusintha kwa mfundo pafupipafupi, kuwongolera kutumiza kunja, ndi kuchuluka kwa zinthu zopangira kumatanthauza kuti mitengo ikhoza kukwera mwadzidzidzi komanso mosayembekezereka.
Mnzanu wokhazikika wopereka zinthu wokhala ndi mfundo zomveka bwino zamitengo akukhala wamtengo wapatali kuposa mtengo wotsika kwambiri.
2. Nthawi Yotsogolera ndi Chiyambi Tsopano Ndi Zinthu Zanzeru
Dziko lochokera, mphamvu yopangira, ndi njira zopezera zinthu zimakhudza mwachindunji kudalirika kwa kutumiza.
Madera ena omwe si a msonkho angapereke ubwino wa nthawi yochepa, koma mphamvu yochepa komanso kusakhala ndi mphamvu zokwanira kungathandize kuchepetsa phindu limenelo.
3. Kukonzekera Zinthu Kumafunika Nthawi Yaitali
Njira yachikhalidwe yoti “gulani mitengo ikatsika” sigwira ntchito bwino. Ogula akulimbikitsidwa kukonzekera kugula zinthu pasadakhale osachepera kotala limodzi ndikupeza ma SKU ofunikira msanga, makamaka zida zodulira zopangidwa ndi cobalt ndi tungsten.
Udindo Wathu Monga Wopanga:
Monga opanga zida komanso ogulitsa kwa nthawi yayitali, tikukhulupirira kuti ntchito yathu si kuwonjezera mantha pamsika, koma kuthandiza anzathu kuthana ndi kusatsimikizika ndi chidziwitso chomveka bwino komanso kukonzekera koyenera.
M'miyezi ikubwerayi cholinga chathu chachikulu chidzakhala:
●Kusunga nthawi yokhazikika yopangira zinthu ngakhale kuti zinthu zopangira sizikusintha
● Kukonza bwino momwe zinthu zimagwiritsidwira ntchito, kuphatikizapo kubwezeretsanso zinthu zambiri komanso kuwongolera kuchuluka kwa zokolola
● Kulankhulana ndi makasitomala msanga za kupsinjika kwa mtengo ndi kusintha kwa nthawi yogulira zinthu
● Kupewa mitengo yongoganizira chabe, m'malo mwake kupereka mawu ofotokozera, ozikidwa pa deta
Tikumvetsa kuti makasitomala athu nawonso ali pansi pa kukakamizidwa ndi misika yawo. Mgwirizano wokhazikika, m'malo ano, umadalira kudalirana, kuwonekera poyera, komanso kudziwa zoopsa zomwe zingachitike, osati mpikisano wa mitengo wa kanthawi kochepa.
6. Chidule: Njira Yatsopano Yogwiritsira Ntchito Zida
Msika wasintha. Sikuti umangokhala wokhudza kupereka ndi kufuna kokha, koma ukukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi ndale ndi malire. Chitsulo chachitsulo chatsika, zomwe zikupangitsa chilichonse kukhala chokwera mtengo. Januwale 2026 chidzakumbukiridwa ngati nthawi yoyambira pamsika wofunikira kwambiri wa mchere. Mwezi uno wawona kusweka kwa malingaliro amalonda aulere motsutsana ndi zenizeni zovuta za geopolitics, kupereka mpata ku dziko latsopano lodziwika ndi zopinga, kuchuluka kwa magawo, ndi kayendetsedwe ka njira. Kwa aliyense amene akutenga nawo mbali mu unyolo wamafakitale, kuzolowera njira yatsopanoyi ya "mitengo yokwera, kusakhazikika kwakukulu, ndi malamulo okhwima" sikuti ndikofunikira kokha kuti munthu apulumuke komanso ndikofunikira kwambiri kuti apeze mwayi wopikisana nawo pazaka khumi zikubwerazi.
Msika wa zida zodulira ukulowa mu gawo lomwe ndale za dziko, malamulo, ndi chitetezo cha zinthu ndizofunikira monga luso lopanga zinthu.
Kwa ogula ndi ogulitsa, funso lofunika kwambiri sililinso
"Ndingagule mtengo wotani?"
koma
"Kodi ndingapeze bwanji zinthu zodalirika m'miyezi 12-24 ikubwerayi?"
Anthu omwe adzazolowera msanga zinthu zatsopanozi adzakhala pamalo abwino pamene kusasinthasintha kudzakhala chinthu chachizolowezi osati chosiyana.
Chodzikanira: Lipotili lakonzedwa kutengera zomwe msika ulipo, nkhani zamakampani, ndi zidutswa za deta kuyambira pa Januware 4, 2026. Pali zoopsa pamsika; ndalama zimafunika kusamala.
Ntchito zomwe zatchulidwa
1. China yatchula makampani omwe aloledwa kutumiza zitsulo zofunika kwambiri kunja kwa dziko mu 2026-2027 - Investing.com, yopezeka pa Januware 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Mitengo ya Tungsten Ikupitirira Kukwera Pamene Opanga Akuluakulu Akukweza Mitengo Ya Mapangano Anthawi Yaitali, Zomwe Zikuonetsa Kukwera Kodabwitsa kwa 150% Chaka Chino [Ndemanga ya SMM] - Shanghai Metal Market, yopezeka pa Januware 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3. Mitengo ya Tungsten ku Ulaya Yakwera Pamwamba pa Kupindula kwa China, Kupanda Ntchito kwa Kupanga Zinthu Zisanachitike Tchuthi Kukuwopseza Kukwera Kwambiri [SMM Analysis] - Shanghai Metal Market, yomwe idafikiridwa pa Januware 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. United States Yamaliza Kukweza Misonkho ya Gawo 301 pa Zinthu Zochokera Ku China, yopezeka pa Januwale 4, 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5.DRC isintha chiletso cha kutumiza kobalti kunja ndi ma quota - Project Blue, idapezeka pa Disembala 27, 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. DRC idaganiza zowonjezera kuchuluka kwa cobalt yotumizidwa kunja kwa dziko mu 2025 kufika pa kotala loyamba la 2026., yomwe idapezeka pa 4 Januwale, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7.Cobalt - Mtengo - Tchati - Zambiri Zakale - Nkhani - Zachuma Zamalonda, zopezeka pa Januware 4, 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Ndalama yowonjezera ya Alloy | Legierungszuschlag.info, yopezeka pa Januware 4, 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
Mtengo wa Masheya a 9.Tiangong International Co Ltd Lero | HK: 0826 Live - Investing.com, idapezeka pa Januware 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Kupanga ma rebound mu Disembala, komwe kudapezeka pa Januwale 4, 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Mitengo ya Tungsten Concentrate Yakwera ndi 7% pa Tsiku Limodzi – Disembala 16, 2025, idapezeka pa Disembala 27, 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Nthawi yotumizira: Januwale-05-2026